Going in to the tournament I had hopes Canada could win gold. The United States was deservedly favored and even if available Poulin wasn't going to be at her best. But the nature of hockey is that anyone can win. Look no further than the Blue Jackets sweeping the Lightning in the NHL playoffs, as an example. Coming off a rivalry series which Canada won and Maschmeyer and Szabados both played exellent in, picking up NCAA Patty Kazmaier winner Loren Gabel, there was reason to believe Canada could win. So much for that.
It is even more unfortunate, because as much as we fans deservedly put Poulin on a pedestal, it is important for the team themselves to understand that she is one human, and they too, can shoulder the load. This was a chance for them to prove to Canada and to themselves what they can do without Poulin. And early in the tournament they looked fine, with a strong preliminary round game against Finland, and yes a 3-2 loss to the USA. In the USA game the biggest concern was the lack of even strength scoring, but two power play goals was decent, and shots wrapped up at 33-30 in favor of Canada. Going into the semi, the team had played a decent tournament, and got a good start in the semi before everything fell apart. That loss sparks some observations and conversation that might not otherwise occur.
Generally speaking, for as close as the Canada US games finish up on the score board, the Canadian squad does not create the same volume of high scoring chances as the Americans do, and Canada doesn't finish as well when they do get chances. Example: Early in the Rivalry Series Poulin and Bettez had a two on one. Poulin got the pass across to Bettez, who caught it on her backhand and rushed something weak on net into the goalie's pads. With the goalie committed to sliding across the crease, one move to her forehand and Bettez would have had an empty net to shoot on. Maybe it was nerves, it was literally her first game ever on the senior national team. But they slotted her right in on the top line and kept her there, and the nature of these short tournaments is you need to be ready to go.
Similarly, early in the Rivalry Series, Poulin was coming up with pucks behind the net and feeding them to Johnson in the slot. Johnson took precious time to handle the puck before getting her shots off, giving the goalie time to reset and make the save. Johnson overhandled pucks in the offensive zone, throughout the Rivalry Series. Canada's top line did not score at even strength in the series. Poulin did Poulin things of course, and got a point on the power play, and an even strength goal assisted by Rattray when lines were mixed up. Canada did not score at even strength vs the Americans at Worlds, at all.
Contrast the above with these two goals below. The first is Cameranesi creating a turnover behind the net and feeding Knight who is timing it such that she can one time a puck into the back of the net, for a game winning goal versus Finland in the preliminaries. The US was under pressure, as they had to come from behind to win that game, in the third period. Contrast that with the panic that Canada displayed in the semi. The second clip below is Decker catching a pass, realizing the goalie is committed, so making that extra stick handle to give herself an open net to shoot at. If Canada wants to routinely succeed vs the Americans again, they need a deep core of players that can execute these skills on a regular basis, as the Americans are routinely doing.
Knight goal:
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) April 4, 2019
Decker goal:
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) April 4, 2019
Another concern is that Canada's scoring production vs the US does not have a lot of depth and is drying up versus the United States. The picture below summarizes total points versus the US, for an individual's time on the Senior National Team. I'm not really concerned about the defense below, I think that discussion probably needs more nuance than I could give it, but a couple things jump out (you can add 1 game to everyone but Poulin, and add 2 points each to Jenner, Nurse, and Lacquette who got points vs the US in the preliminary game at Worlds).
The first thing that jumps out is Johnston. Johnston has the 2nd most points of any Canadian on the Worlds roster, vs the US, with 24 points in 66 games. She is Canada's longest tenured player right now and plays top 6 minutes. However, she did not register a point vs the US at the 2018 Olympics, 2018 Four Nations, Rivalry Series or 2019 Worlds, her last 8 games versus them. Club wise, she had a great year - 39 points in 27 games for the Calgary Inferno, a Clarkson Cup championship, and always looks like one of the best players on the ice. She was 4th in TOI/game among forwards for Canada at Worlds' and had 4 points total. If Canada is going to keep up that kind of ice time for her, they need to help her get more productive.
The next concerning thing is the number of forwards who are racking up games versus the Americans but not points. Saulnier, Turnbull, and Clark have 8 points vs the Americans in a combined 70 games. Clark and Turnbull are both centers, which makes a person think Canada is lacking centers right now. Or, is it a game management thing where these guys dress but never get put on the ice? Or are we picking the wrong players, or have a development problem? That's all for Hockey Canada to figure out, but it looks like there is room to crack this roster at center.
What's unfortunate is that Turnbull had such a strong Rivalry Series, earning two points and centering Canada's most productive line between Stacey and Rattray. At World's before getting injured she averaged 13:22 minutes per game, and almost 3 shots per game. She finished with 4 points. Again, Canada needs to figure out what they are doing with their bottom six forwards. There is a tremendous amount of pressure on the power play and top line to provide all the offense versus the Americans at this point.
Canada has long been criticized for not bringing their best 23 players to tournaments. I said in a previous post that I didn't know if it was that or rather the US is just getting better results out of their players. Would Canada really be so arrogant as to believe they could win without their best players, when we've barely won at all since 2010? I will give examples of some puzzling decisions that might suggest yes they are that arrogant, but first some evidence of the other side of the argument, that Hockey Canada is trying to adjust positively, and learn from not bringing star players:
In 2017 Daoust wasn't at Worlds and Canada wasn't good enough to win. So they brought her to the Olympics. She was the MVP, but it still wasn't enough. 2018 Four Nations, thank god, rising star Loren Gabel is finally on the roster. Impressive start, 2 points in 2 games versus the Americans. Keep her around! For the Rivalry Series, we finally got CWHL star, Ann-Sophie Bettez on the roster. Canada won, and Bettez impressed and was blessed with top six minutes alongside Marie Philip Poulin and Rebecca Johnson the two leading point scorers vs US for this roster. 0 points for Bettez though, which was concerning. Then Worlds, and the bronze place finish. I get the sense Hockey Canada is trying to adjust, but the results still have not been what they wanted, and that is again concerning.
Now, the puzzling decisions. Jared already gave examples in his post, but here were a couple I thought of. The 2018 Four Nations roster did not originally include Jamie Lee Rattray. She was a late addition, after 2 other forwards got injured. She then worked her way on to the Rivalry Series roster where she *checks notes* was tied for the lead in scoring, with three points in three games. Hmm. Going into Worlds she had 6 points in 8 games versus the Americans. She got 6 points total at Worlds, averaging 9:21 per game. In the loss versus the Finns, despite scoring a goal, she got fewer than 6 minutes of ice time. She average 5.5 points per 60 at Worlds, the best of any Canadian. Next closest was Spooner, who finished with 4.9 points per 60 and 10 points at Worlds, Canada's point leader. It seems reasonable that Canada should be putting Rattray on the roster not just when the team is injury ravaged, and not only that, giving her ice time. (stats are from IIHF.com and this amazing sheet from Mike Murphy @digdeepBSB:
The other recent puzzling decision that I will point out is on defense. Jaime Bourbonnais, a defender from Cornell was on the Four Nations roster. Not a ton of playing time, but she's young. The defense in the final game was atrocious and when the win was out of reach Pearn finally through Bourbonnais out there on the power play, and she scores a goal, versus the US in her 2nd ever game against them. She honestly has a great shot, can get off a one timer that resembles Knight a bit, and finished fourth in points per game among all active NCAA defenders this year. So they put her on the roster for Worlds, but used her sparingly. In the semi loss to Finland she got 0 shifts. The next day, she got almost 19 minutes of ice time a bronze medal blow out, in which she also scored a goal. It's hard to look at this and understand what the thinking is by the coaching staff.
The Bourbonnais thing is further frustrating for me because in the Rivalry Series, which Canada actually won, they played 5 out of 6 defense. To make room for both Bourbonnais and Zandee-Hart at Worlds, Canada dropped Krzyzaniak who played well at RS....only to have Bourbonnais sit on a bench in a game when an offensive defender could have been of great value. Hockey Canada leaves itself vulnerable to criticism when stuff like this occurs. There is absolutely no way this entirely about Canada's players just not being as good as the Americans. The Americans might have more raw skill (like seriously this core of Americans is very special) but you really get the sense that Canada is just not operating on all cylinders.
I will end it there, but a person could go on. The bright spots are there (at Worlds it was Spooner, Jenner, Lacquette, Gabel, Rattray, Nurse, off the top of my head), there is always reason to believe Canada can get back to gold, but there is no guarantee. Greatness is an every day endeavor. Look at the step Sweden thought it took in 2006 with that silver Olympic medal. Last week - relegated.
This storyline will simmer a bit now, as Hockey Canada hopefully plays a role in figuring out where their national team players will play next year, but it will return with a vengeance as development team camp selections and Fall Festival camp selections are made in the coming months.
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